Category Archives: 2016 Seasonings

Power and OBP

Two of the most critical factors of success in the OOTL are Power and OBP. Since the OOTL is an all-star pitching league and dice are used, a team’s hitting ability is only one of 4 factors of offensive success. In a previous edition we looked at speed/moving runner. In a future edition hitting will be evaluated, but today the ASSN will evaluate each teams Power and OBP.
Power:
As opposed to pitching it it difficult to evaluate power due to limitation of games and double-column cards with zeros in the first column. Obviously a double-column card loaded with 1’s in column two is stronger than one with limited second column 1’s, but the challenge of evaluating these differences becomes information prohibitive.  Therefore we chose to take a more simple approach with power as we believe our factors will give a clear enough evaluation without going into too much detail.
Key Factors Evaluated:
1) 1st Column 1’s at 66
2) Power numbers at 44
3) Other 1st Column 1’s and 5’s. (1’s are given 1 point and, since 5’s are not always HR’s, they count as .5 points)
As you can see from the chart below the Asian Tsunamis executed their draft strategy and built what we believe is a team that can take a run at the all-time home run record. APBA is much more fun to Tsunami leadership when they score runs so they made the sacrifices necessary to build a team that should score regardless of bad rolling days. Will it be enough to reach the end goal of a 5th championship? That remains to be seen. We will give our team evaluations in part 10 of this report, but as for power the Tsunamis are in a league of their own.
The Speakers, Wahoos and Lyme Bees are also loaded with power and will be a force with the long ball. Flat or negative power pitchers may end up with brown pants when going up against this group.  The Stars fell down to the average group because they were on the borderline and three first column ones are all on the same card of a limited use player. However they are still a power force.
Finally in a league of their own as well is The Plague. As we saw from the Speed/Moving Runners analysis, The Plague’s GM focus is on speed and they will have to take that route to get to the top.  A scary team at this point is the Speakers as they are second ranked in power, were one of the top teams in speed/moving runners and had one of the best rotations. It definitely looks like–at least early on–they will be under consideration for the top three playoff seeds.
Power-Chart
OBP:
The second element we are discussing today is OBP. Again we are taking a lazier route in analysis rather than counting all BB’s, Rare play/Error opportunities and HBP ‘s on each card. However, we believe our MLB-actual OBP analysis will give us a strong directional ranking of teams without all the extra work.
Key Factors Evaluated:
1) Players with MLB OBP +.345
2) Players with MLB OBP +.375
Once again, the numbers indicate the Tsunamis at the top. This will be a strong combination of power and OBP so the Tsunamis could be positioned for success pending other evaluation factors to come. The Stars, Plague, Wahoos and AB’s are also above average on the OBP front. The Wahoos OBP/Power factors are also a great combination while the high speed graded Plague along with this OBP ranking could help position them high up in the standings. And what about the Stars Rotation, Power and OBP? Another team to look at strongly. Flat or negative control pitchers also may need some Shout stain remover when they face this group.
An interesting note is our champions are leading up the rear in this category. Very surprising but low OBP can often be balanced out by strong hitting cards. That answer will come in a later journal edition.
OBP-Chart
As you can see as we start combining these various factors, things start to take shape on the overall team rankings. However, we have several more evaluations to come including the final 6 spots, bullpens, hitting, and in the next edition, fielding!

Asian Sports Network (ASSN)

Cheater Cards, Speed and Moving Runners

Cheater Cards:
Marcus Stroman was not carded this year but was a huge factor in the MLB playoffs. Had he had a couple more regular season starts would he have been called a cheater card? Chris Colabello started all of Toronto’s post season games, batted .286 in the playoffs and was a key factor yet many would call him a cheater card. Steven Matz is a top prospect on everyone’s list, started in the playoffs and World Series, but his Grade 20/3 start card would be considered a cheater card by most. Three seasons ago Michael Wacha and Xander Bogaerts were huge assets to their MLB teams in the playoffs and World Series yet in our league the next year many would have considered them cheater cards.
This is an inflammatory topic and debate with varying opinions in OOTL as well as outside the APBA community. The first issue is really what is a cheater card. That definition varies among APBA players. While most consider XB/J4 cards to be cheater cards if the card is valuable, others take that definition much further and include any veteran player J3 who has a card better than average and much better than their historical card. But is that player a cheater card?   Are high plus throwing catchers who are not starters all cheater card? Are all reliever pitchers with limited innings but strong grades cheater cards? Are top prospect starters with high grades and low starts cheater cards? Are John McDonald types a cheater card? As you can see the debate is a flawed one on both sides because the definition of a cheater card will vary by APBA player.
There is one proven fact regardless of the cheater card: whether a high-graded pitcher or a plus 17 vs. LHP, that player did perform at that level in MLB the previous season. He was a “cheater player” for his MLB team. On the other side of the debate a key additional fact is that those players did not necessarily perform at that level against all opponents or all pitchers though that is also true of every card. Most guys in MLB with +12+ vs. LHP did not hit as well vs. Kershaw as they did vs. Gio Gonzalez. So both sides have valid arguments for and against cheater cards. Our only opinion is you cannot vary the definition of a cheater card by the name of the player.  You cannot say a veteran over performing is one but a top prospect with the same type of card is not a cheater card.
The ASSN believes that cheater cards are not a problem in the OOTL because of our strict usage requirements and our limited availability (barring trades) of 34 active players per season. As you are aware, an MLB team averages 45+ players in a season and many crossover the 50-60+ barrier. These players for the most part have no usage limits and an MLB team’s resources are endless. Since we have 34 spots (barring trades), any cheater cards added will mean the GM is sacrificing another area of the team. We will examine this in more detail in a future edition examining the Final Six rosters spots.
In the 2016 draft, our service identified 18 potential cheater cards drafted.
• Two teams, the Lemonheads and Eliminators did not draft any cheater cards.
• The Lyme Bees lead the way and filled out their bullpen with 4 RP cheater cards.
• The Tsunamis added three including 1 RP Hinojosa and two late position players Gutierrez and Rayburn to protect themselves against lefty starting pitchers. The Speakers surprising drafted three cheater cards but all three of them come with the asterisk. Severino is a top prospect though his value as a 4th game starter in the playoffs is undeniable. Hernandez also has to be considered a cheater card since it is one of the most valuable cards in the entire deck and Hernandez himself does not provide as much value in MLB. The asterisk has to be placed on Hernandez as he is a young player with upside who was a huge part of the 2015 Dodgers and started in the playoffs. Also being asterisked would be Joe Blanton. While the Speakers do not need his starts for the playoffs and his 13 grade relief appearances are not cheater-like, his two starts with a grade 13 RHSP/+42 control rating are definitely cheater starts. The Stars drafted 3 cheaters as well with two G4 playoff starters (again they are not cheaters as relievers but their playoff starts are cheaters) and Casali.
• The Wahoos chimed in with two: Colabello (an asterisk we discussed above) and Blanco.
• Three teams came in with one cheater starter all being game 4 playoff assets.
Speed and Moving Runners:
In the chart below we analyze two functions of moving base runners: fast runners and 31’s. As you see three teams, the Browns, Plague and Speakers have well above average small ball teams. On the other hand, the Bees, Lemonheads, Wahoos, Asians and Stars will need to beat you with power or above average hitting to get to the next level.
Speed-SB-Chart
In the next edition we will look at Power and OBP!!
Asian Sports Network (ASSN)

Opening Day

Tonight the 2016 OOTL season will kick off as the Bastards travel to Lewisberry to take on the Lemonheads.  2016 OOTL POY hopeful Zack Greinke gets the ball in the opener. He will be opposed by Cole Hamels.

Other pitching match ups are
Scherzer v Young (a former Bastard)
Miller v Odorozzi
Salazar v Buchholz

On Thursday the Bastards will continue their road trip to as they venture to Shartzville for the first time. Same rotation for the Bastards as the Browns counter w/ Kershaw, Gallardo, Shields and Wacha.
I’m gonna make an effort to do series write ups this year…those efforts probably won’t last past this email but goal setting is always a good idea.
BTW Darwin Barney leads the Grapefruit League in RBI’s as he just drove in his 5th run of the day!
Good luck to everyone this season!!!
Steve

Starting Pitching

Gentlemen, take out your staffs! In this edition we are attacking Starting Pitching. We use objective quantitative methods whenever possible with very minimal aspects of the analysis based on subjective theory. In the end, we will rank what we believe to be best starting pitching staffs for this year’s OOTL season. Again, this is an important clarification as we are not evaluating starting pitching by upside or by MLB standards. Our evaluation is limited to expected performance in this year’s OOTL season. It is very difficult to evaluate starting pitching because there are so many external factors affecting wins and losses in the OOTL. Therefore our evaluation of the staffs is purely in a vacuum. It is not an indicator of success per se. We will be creating indexes which will determine the best staffs in a vacuum, but actual results could differ based on any combination of the following:

External Factors:
• Some Owners position their best pitchers against their opponent’s best pitchers.
• Other owners like to match up their best vs. worst and worst vs. best pitchers
.• Still others use a rotation and stick to it regardless of opponent.
• Finally others strategically attempt to match starter attributes such as l/r grade, control, power and K numbers vs. their most favorable opponent matchups.
• Some owners are better game managers than others.
• Bullpen, fielding and hitting quality of a team and its opponent will also affect success of your staff.
• Fatigue, indifference, anger and loss of focus will also affect results.
• Future trades.
• And let’s not forget dice rolls.

Let’s start with some firm data. Our 10 Starting Pitching inventories range from 7 to 12 pitchers. We will elaborate on these different roster strategies in a future edition when we evaluate the final 6 roster spots of each team. Every team has at least one LSP on their roster but some staffs have a higher pct. All pitchers who we expect to see at least one start this year are listed under regular starters except for pitchers we refer to as cheater starters. We will discuss this group more in a future edition when we evaluate cheater cards but for now we include pitchers in this group which have limited starts but are top or above average quality. Finally we also assigned the pitchers who will not be starting this season due to either the veteran or young prospects category. Our service would love to see an evolution of roster size to add two (not eligible to play positions called Veteran prospects) but again we will discuss this in future editions.

We began our analysis by ranking best to worse the 70 starters we believe will pitch this year based on each team needing 90 starts. This was a subjective review based on 5 factors: L/R, Grade, Power rating, Control Rating and strikeout letters. We then broke this ranking into 4 groups graded A-D. As a note there are a couple of pitchers at the grade cutoffs who blur a grade. That is they could easily fit into two different grades based on their metrics. Therefore in a couple cases we assigned some of their starts to multiple grades. The chart below shows this breakdown by how many starts will be made by team by grade this year. The A-D breakdown is 196-351-172-181 for 900 starts (10 teams* 90 games).

Here is where a simple analysis could be done and we could have called it a day. If you use a weighted method (example 4 for A, 3 for B, etc.) similar to a GPA calculation we could develop a valid ranking.

However, there are some limitations. Because of the number of pitchers we assigned to each group and the potential winning pct. of each grade, 4-3-2-1 weighing is not the most accurate way to predict each grades value. Therefore we had to develop an index method. If we combine our total starts by grade number with historic stats on wins/losses we develop a base winning pct. This is only a directional and could change annually but the point is that the base pct.’s lead to a 45-45 record with the base # of starters per grade. Therefore in the end the pct’s used do not matter that much as long as they are curved correctly.

We were also able to back into a base average staff based on 10 teams and the total starts by grade which we had previously identified. We then extrapolated those numbers to develop a base wins per grade of pitcher. As an example, our base team which would be expected to go 45-45 in a league with 196 A starts, 351 B starts, 172 C starts and 181 D starts would have 20 A starts, 35 B starts, 17 C starts and 18 D starts on its roster.

Now we have all we need to best rank the rotations. We use each team’s projected number of starts by grade and index those vs. our developed base 45-45 team’s number of starters by grade. As an example below, The Stars have a positive 16 index under A as they have 36 A starts and our base team has 20 A starts. The Stars also have a -18 index under D because they have no D starts and the base team has 18.

We then applied the projected winning pct. of each grade’s starters to the index to develop the final rotation ranking. A 45-45 record team is the zero base. Therefore our ranking shows that in a vacuum, not considering all the external factors listed in the beginning, there are 4 teams which have staffs better than average.

The Best Rotations:

The Stars, Speakers and Lyme Bees clearly have the best rotations. There are some subtle differences which explain why they are ranked Stars, Speakers and Lyme Bees.

1) Shooting Stars: The Stars have 1 more A start than the Bees and 2 more than the Speakers. While the Speakers and Lyme Bees have more B starts the Stars have more C starts and no D starts. Therefore the additional A start and lack of any D starts carried them to the best rotation.

2) Speakers: The Speakers are the second best rotation and are right there with the Stars with one exception. The Speakers barring trade will have to get 4 starts from R11/16/14 Joe Ross. We rank Ross a D pitcher and those 4 starts cost the Speakers a shot at the top ranking.

3) Lyme Bees: The Bees are also right there but also got by 12 Grade 4 starts by Kyle Hendriks.

Next Best Rotations:

4) Lemonheads: A step below the mighty 3 but comfortably better then the other 6 are the Lemonheads, The Lemonheads are solid in that they have no D starts but not ranked as high because they only have half as many A starts as the top three.

Middle of the Road Rotations:

5) AB’s: Limited A starts and significant D starts but still an average aggregate rotation.
6) Wahoos: A strong number of A&B combined starts but no C and 29 D put them just under the AB’s.
7) Plague: Again a strong number of A&B starts and a few less A starts than the Wahoos, but no C starts and a few more D starts put them just under the Wahoos.

The Rest:

8) Browns: The best of this group but too many C’s and D’s left them just short of the above group.
9) Tsunamis: No A starts but a solid number of B starts gives them the nod over the Eliminators.
10) Eliminators: No A starts and 38 D starts position these guys in the dreaded 10 spot.

But what about playoff rotations? Since only your 4 best are used in the playoffs in limited games and most matchups will be A’s and B’s we cannot use the above analysis. Therefore we will use the following chart and a subjective look:

Best Playoff Rotations:

1-3) Stars, Bees, Speakers: Lyme Bees Arrieta gets nod over Keuchel and Price. Degrom, Gray and Harvey are close but Degrom gets the nod. Lackey also gets close nod over Syndergaard and Archer. Finally the Stars pull out the win as Cheater starter combo Wilson/McAllister eek out the win over McCullers/Bumgarner and Severino.

4) Plague: a solid 4th place driven by Garcia, Matz and Estrada.

5-6): Lemonheads/Wahoos: Greinke is best and wins the tiebreaker.

7-8):Browns/AB’s: Kershaw wins the tiebreaker.

9-10) Tsunamis/E’s: The Tsunamis solid BB rating could make a difference and make them competitive if they can make the dance. The Eliminators rare 6 man lefty playoff rotation could also cause nightmares for some teams. Even at 9 and 10 these two teams staff anomalies could win in the playoffs if they can make it there.

NEXT WEEK: We will look at Cheater Card strategies in 2016.

Craig Dolan for the ASIAN SPORTS NETWORK (ASSN)

2016 Draft Day

We again thank Manager Kevin for hosting our annual Rookie Draft on Sunday, February 21st. The facility is perfect for keeping warm food warm, cold food (and beer) cold, providing electrical outlets throughout the spacious drafting room, and even coffee on-demand.

Our agenda begins on a somber note as we recognize the recent loss of Bob Silks and his Birds of Pray franchise. As we share around the table, the fun baseball memories with Bob lighten our spirits, just as he would want. Bob Boyd adds a thoughtful touch by placing Bob’s team before an empty seat at our table, because he remains with us in memory and spirit.

President Brandon follows by introducing our newest OOTL member, Tony Champa. Tony actually finished the 2015 season by taking over the Devil Dogs franchise and renaming it the Shartlesville Browns. Welcome, Tony!

Of course, we continually seek new members to join our ranks. We invited potential expansion managers who had other commitments today; however, we’re hopeful that they’ll follow through with watching a few series this season and getting the OOTL fever for 2017 and beyond.

We recognize the 2015 OOTL champion with our trophy and plaque presentation. John Ingiosi’s Lymebees finished the regular season in first place and had little difficulty in the playoffs to win their very first OOTL championship.

2016-Champ-cw

John is also the first recipient of the newly renamed Silks-Williard trophy, now honoring two OOTL members. Congratulations, John!

League officers continue as in 2015 except for vice-president as Craig abstains due to geography. Steve accepts the nomination unopposed to become our new VP. Brandon continues as president; Bob as Secretary-Treasurer; and, John and Kevin remain alternates to the executive committee.

Player of the Year voting results:
1 – Michael Brantley (The Plague)
2 – Adrian Beltre (Lymebees)
3 – Jose Altuve (Birds of Pray)

Pitcher of the Year voting results:
1 – Chris Sale (Eliminators)
2 – Adam Wainwright (Unhinged Wahoos)
3 – Johnny Cueto (Asian Tsunamis)

Clarifications

Brandon will contact Alice to clarify new electronic contact data for Ed.

Forfeits – In order to eliminate the possibility of a forfeit, which occurred during 2015’s 3rd period, we discuss Brandon’s alternative and agree on a simpler version: Use the last (or currently) available relief pitcher from the active roster who may have been ineligible due to Batters Faced or season Innings Pitched.  That relief pitcher would begin (or continue) as a 1* -66 -66. If season IP are not exceeded, the RP would be subject to fatigue moving forward. Approved 9-1.

In addition, a clarification: any negative control pitcher must visit the pitcher grade chart on a roll of 12 or 35 before giving up a walk. With any negative control pitcher on a hit-and-run play, go directly to the steal chart. The count on the batter is 2-0.

Playoff rotations – What are the requirements?  Are they necessary?  An issue occurred in a series during the playoffs where one team wanted to adjust who was going to start specific games within a series.  Result: Starters for the first three (3) games must be announced. Once a roster is submitted to the executive committee, it is final.

Tiebreaker rules for draft position – What needs to be added to the constitution to avoid future issues like the multi-step tie we experienced this year between the Tsunamis and Wahoos. Result: Series wins as a 3rd tie-breaker; run differential as a 4th tie-breaker for draft position.

Switch to updated Master Game booklet version for play results – Brandon requested that Craig bring his copy of the booklet that APBA created as an update to boards. Brandon thought that we could review this to see whether it would be something that we wanted to adopt in the future. Result: Tabled for now. All of us wish to review the booklet.

Rules Discussion and Proposals

Eliminate Rule 2.12  (e) Play result (26) on Second Base board requires a defensive roll for fielding: Fielding 1 – Batter out at 1st, runner holds A-4, PO-3; fielding 2 & 3 – Batter out at 1st, runner advances 1 base A-4, PO-3.  Follow exactly what displays on the boards. (Steve) Passes, 8-2.

Any catcher that catches 12 innings in one game is ineligible to start the following game. (Ed) Passes, 10-0.

Continue to use realistic runner advancement (brown board) at the discretion of both managers for any series. (Brian) Passes, 10-0.

Board result 30, 31 or 32 with Runner on 1st, Runner on 2nd or Runners on 1st and 2nd: increase each Hit Valuation Number by 10 6 on fly out advancement attempts.  (Brian) Passes, 7-3.

A relief pitcher may not exceed two innings in an appearance unless one of the following criteria is met: 1) Designated Long Man – Prior to each series, a manager will designate one RP that can be used as a Long Man.   This RP is able to pitch as many innings as the manager wishes while following all other established league rules surround relief pitching.  The Designated Long Man can be a SP who did NOT have any relief appearances the prior year.  If a SP is used in this capacity, the SP will lose a start. 2) The SP in the current game was removed due to being downgraded because the SP allowed 5 ER over a 3 inning period. 3) The RP entering the game is the last available RP. 4) The RP enters a game that is in extra innings. 5) The RP reaches their limit with 2 outs in an inning.  The manager can allow the RP to finish the inning.  (This allows for manipulation of the rule but at least is forces someone to manage and make decisions). 6) The SP was removed due to injury or ejection. (Brandon) Withdrawn.

Limit On The Use Of HIT-AND-RUN PLAYS IN A GAME: 3 Times a game and one additional in EXTRA INNINGS. (Brandon) Failed, 4-6.

CHANGE THE TRADE DEADLINE – Move the deadline back to the end October.  This allows teams to have played more series and will allow teams to know if they are in the playoff race or not.  However, once the deadline is passed, no more trades can be made. (Brandon) Failed, 1-9.

Starting in 2017, starting pitchers will be limited to GS AND IP. (Brandon)  Withdrawn.

Starting with our 2017 season, limit all pitchers only by GS and batters faced (in relation to the current number of scheduled games plus 10%). Current rest chart still applies.” (Brian) Tabled until mid-season.

Clarification – If we don’t find a new manager for 2017, the Birds of Pray roster will be added to the 2017 rookie draft.

Following a brief break, we began our 2016 Rookie Draft with the Lemonheads selecting first. You can analyze the results on this spreadsheet.