2016 First Period

Shooting Stars II vs. Speakers

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Game 1 – The Speakers finally open their season and score 3 early runs on RBI doubles against Lance Lynn. Manny Machado connects for the first Speakers’ homer of the season with Anthony Rizzo aboard in the 7th for a 5-0 lead.

The Stars finally break through with a sac fly in the 7th off Chris Archer. Then the bottom of the 8th features a walk, a Mookie Betts error, a wild pitch and 5 hits in 6 at-bats. When the dust settles, the Stars erase a 5-0 deficit and enjoy a 6-5 lead, which the pen preserves in the 9th.

W – Andrew Chafin; L – Jeurys Familia (0-1); S – Joe Smith

Game 2 – Buster Posey’s RBI double and CarGo’s solo match Todd Frazier’s 2-run homer for a 2-2 deadlock in the 2nd. Both David Price and Jake deGrom settle in to fire blanks until the 8th.

After Rizzo’s lead-off double, Aroldis Chapman takes over for the Stars. Machado flies to center, but Posey walks on a 65-35. Cespedes flies to left bringing rookie Kris Bryant to the plate with 2 outs. He strokes a 2-run double for a 4-2 Speakers’ lead.

After Price sets the Stars down in order in the 8th, Roberto Osuna has a shaky 9th. Familia comes on to strike out Sin-Shoo Choo with the tying runs on base to save the 4-2 final.

W – Price (1-0); L – deGrom; S – Familia (1)

Game 3 – Dallas Keuchel and Matt Harvey strand baserunners through 3. In the bottom of the 4th, Machado singles home Posey. In the 6th, Ender Inciarte, (who has both hits against Harvey), adds a solo HR to his boxscore to tie the game at 1-1.

Cespedes singles to start the bottom half. Choo bobbles the ball in right allowing Yoenis to reach 2nd. Chris Young follows one out later with a 2-run tater.

The Stars manage just one single in the final 3 innings as the Speakers win, 3-1. Harvey (7 IP) and Jeremy Jeffress hold the Stars to just 4 hits, 3 by Inciarte.

W – Harvey (1-0); L – Keuchel; S – Jeffress (1)

Game 4 – The Speakers collect candlesticks in the 3rd (Rizzo RBI single) and 5th (Andrelton Simmons RBI single). Other opportunities for both teams prove fruitless until the 8th.

With 1 out, Inciarte and Hunter Pence single. Cecil relieves Carlos Martinez and uncorks a wild pitch to score Inciarte. Matt Carpenter then rockets a single to score HFP. Again, we’re tied in the series: 2-2.

Both teams threaten in the 12th with a runner at 3rd and less than 2 outs, but cannot convert. In the 13th Simmons singles and Rizzo walks. Machado launches a 3-run walkoff HR for a 5-2 final.

W – Sipp (1-0); L – Mark Lowe

Personal

Arrogant Bastards vs. Unhinged Wahoos

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The bizarre start to the AB’s season continued on last evening in Linglestown as the Wahoos finally broke spring camp, hopped aboard their rocket ship and ‘crash’ (ok, maybe the AB’s did the crashing) landed in Rascal’s litter box…. BTW, Rascal greeted his company with purrs and a kicking dump!!!

And away we go….

Game 1
Hamels v Cole… In the bottom of the first Joe Panik and Kevin Pillar crash into each other and Panik is killed for the series while Pillar gets to continue on.  So the AB’s play with a 24-man roster for the final 35 innings of the series!!!  The game is scoreless until the 5th when the AB’s get a Pillar single followed by a stolen base.  Forsythe walks; and with 2 outs, Trout reaches on an error by Soler plating Pillar.  Agone follows with an RBI single only to be outdone by a Ginger Jesus 3-run jack to cap off a 5-run inning for the AB’s.  Fowler hits a solo shot in the bottom of the frame and Edwin would double home Eaton in the 8th.  But Cody Allen comes on with 1 out in the 9th to save the win for Hamels while Cole takes a tough luck loss.  5-2 AB’s.

Game 2 delayed by Mother’s Subs.

Game 2
Scherzer v Kluber… Again the game is scoreless until the 5th when the Wahoos bust out with a Blanco walk, Crawford single, a McCann 2-RBI double, Eaton singles in a run but is later cut down at home by a Trout to Andrus to Swihart hook up…. But it’s a 3-0 lead until the top of the 8th…which didn’t end until the bottom of the 8th was over.  Look, I said it bizarre.  With two outs we forgot to have Kluber have his 5 point bump for 7 consecutive innings, so what was the final out by Parra with runners on 1st and 3rd became an RBI single to cut the lead to 3-1.  Up steps Bret Gardner who rolled a 33-0 followed by a 2nd column 7, which plated only 1 run instead of possibly two.  The AB’s went 1-2-3 in the 9th as Andrew Miller saved it for the winner Kluber as Scherzer took the loss.

Game 3
Miller v Burnett… The scene shifts to the AB’s home park and bizarre takes on a new meaning… again.  The Wahoos plate a run in the first on a lead off double by Fowler and RBI single by Abreu.  They had a BB and another hit in the inning but somehow only managed 1 run.  Trout led off the bottom of the 1st with a single and later scored on a 1st and 3rd comebacker to the pitcher by Big Papi.  In the 2nd a foul pop over by the AB’s dugout became another crash test for dummies as Agone ran over Russell Martin…. Agone left the game while Martin was done for the series.  AB’s go the rest of the game with a 22 man roster (remember Panik?).  With 2 outs in the 2nd, the Wahoos load the bases on walks; and with Arenado up, a ball bounds away from Swihart who hustles after the ball and fires to Miller covering the dish for the final out.  In the 4th Blanco leads off with a walk and tries to score on a double by Crawford, but this time it’s Trout to Russell to Swihart as Blanco is gunned down at the plate.  In the 6th, Blanco hits a 2-out double and again tries to score–this time on a single by Crawford–but is gunned down once again by Trout (3rd OF assist of the series).  In the bottom of the 6th Big Papi gets a HR turned back (+31).  But in the bottom of the 7th Kevin Pillar hits a 2nd-column solo HR for the 2-1 AB’s lead to make a winner out of Matt Thornton with a save for Wade Davis.  Burnett takes a tough luck loss.

Game 4
Salazar v Iglesias… Once again the teams remain scoreless until the 5th when the Wahoos break through with back-to-back HR’s by Soler (a -12 gift HR) and Dozier for a 2-0 lead.  In the bottom of the 6th the AB’s load the bases with a BB, BB, E3…, but the Wahoos turn a rare play double play to limit the AB’s to only 1 run in the inning.  The game remains 2-1 until the bottom of the 9th when Forsythe leads the inning off by getting plunked by Miller.  Andrus follows with a hit and run 63 single to put runners on the corners with no one out.  Trout rolls an 11-1 and Miller fails to turn it back as Mike drops his dice and makes a beeline for Rascal for comfort.  AB’s walk off with a 4-2 win to make Matt Thornton the winner again as Miller suffers the loss.

The AB’s stretch their record to 10-6… and may look for an opponent for next week.

Like I said the bizarre continued…the injuries, the rare plays, 4 Wahoos cut down at the plate in the series, and 3 timely home runs for the AB’s that basically won the series in a total team effort for the walking wounded.

2016 Seasonings

ASSN Journal: The Final Anal-ysis

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Today we will be wrapping up the journal and whipping up a batch of our special sauce one final time. The ASSN Journal will then go dormant until the season is over when we will close out with our final publication which will analyze the results of our predictions.
We truly hope we did not offend anyone along the way. Our staff was torn on this point but decided to publish our annual studies for the first time because we believed the good would outweigh the bad. There are 5 reasons why we decided to publish:
1) All teams have a chance: Since our league only has 10 teams this year, we believe that all rosters have enough strengths that they could compete for a playoff spot this year. At times owners old and new get frustrated and give up too early. We believe that the league will be stronger the longer all teams are battling it out in a season. As we all saw last season after a team went 7-33, it caused major problems with stats and getting the remaining games played. We do not believe there will be any teams out of it early this season. On the other hand we do not think any teams will dominate the season like the Lyme Bees and Eliminators did last year.
2) Asian Tsunami engagement: In the Tsunamis glory years we spent much more time in preparation and building the book on teams than we did actually playing the game. The past two years (due to 3 moves and other adjustments) we have not dedicated the time to scouting. By committing to publishing the data it forced us to actually put in the time and work.
3) New Owners: there are new faces on the scene whom I hope some of our work can benefit.
4) Setting Myths Straight: There are many myths owners have adopted made over the years. Most are excuses for not winning or false explanations for why a team won that season. We hope that by showing all the factors that go into building team, these myths will be thrown out. We believe dice rolling, luck and in-game management only play small roles in the final results for the season. While certainly a factor on any given day or series, over the length of the season the main factor of success is the team roster that was built prior to and on draft day. There are exceptions to this rule of course with in-season trades being a great example. But in the end, your success for the season will come from your building of the team.
5) Successful Predictions: like anyone, our group likes to get it right. At season’s end we will take pride in proving that we predicted the results before the season.
The Rankings:
Before we start the rankings we will mention some possible realities:
1) There may be a top-ranked team that completely falls off the rails for whatever reason and may not even make the playoffs.
2) There may be a mid-level or lower-ranked team that performs better than expected and makes the playoffs.
3) One-two teams will greatly improve with trades and make the playoffs.
4) Unexpectedly, a team may pull the plug early.
Seeds 1-3: Teams which will earn the bye:
These teams are very different. All have very strong areas but also each has opportunity areas. They grade above the next group because of their strong areas as well as some common attributes among these three organizations. These include: 1) Significant games with C +3 arms or better.  2) Well above average power in at least their starting lineups if not entire roster.  3) Strong Bullpens.   4) Cards with power at 44 or 7+ at 55. Again though, we stress that it is entirely possible one of these teams seasons will fall apart and they will be sitting at home in December. The question is “Which One”?
1) Speakers:  The Speakers earned the top spot among these three due to their top-graded starting rotation. They earned the spot in the top three from building top-graded Starting Pitching, Fielding and Speed along with strong power and tough bullpen. As we stated before, the only concerns we have are the hitting and OBP factors. The Speakers did a phenomenal job building a top-ranked team this year while still holding firm on their player loyalty and youth goals. It is actually a paradox that their great success at drafting so many top quality prospects has actually slightly handcuffed their 2016 season. This team has several future all-stars that (presently in MLB or the OOTL) are not significant contributors. These players could not be cut so it limited the moves that their GM could do for this season. Overall though we believe this team is simply too good in too many areas not to make the top three. Winning in the playoffs may be more challenging without trades and they will go through some scoring droughts, but at this time you are looking at the OOTL’s top seed.
2) Asian Tsunamis: Similar to the Speakers in that they have issues in key certain areas but also in that what they are good at they are very good at. Top-graded in all offensive segments but speed combined with a strong bullpen positions them at #2 just slightly ahead of the AB’s. This team will be an unstoppable run-scoring force so we find it hard to believe they won’t win 55% of their games and grab a top seed. The key factors which could cause a train wreck are the starting rotation and challenging schedule. Trades may be needed to get this team over the top in the playoffs.
3) AB’s: A slight 3rd below the first two but overall strength in virtually all categories puts them above the next group. The key watch outs here are starting rotation and position player depth. Like the Speakers the AB’s roster includes several roster spots of future stars who are not presently impact players. Their starting lineup is better than the Speakers and almost as strong as the Tsunamis, but there is a large drop off after the first 9. Again a trade may be needed but one could argue that this team may be able to grab the championship by improving more easily than the Speakers or Tsunamis.
 4-5 Playoff Teams:
The top teams here slipped into this group because of their hitting ratings, lack of a C +3 (except one team) and at least one other significant opportunity area. There is very little difference in rating between teams ranked 4-7 and we believe any of them have a very realistic chance to earn a 4-5 seed. Although it seems like every year the Asians struggle to have a strong rotation, we value strong rotations above many other factors. Therefore our picks for 4 and 5 both have A graded rotations.
4) Shooting Stars II: Top-graded rotation, bullpen and starting lineup power as well as strong OBP will drive this team to a playoff seed. Run droughts from lack of 44-7’s and no strong catching arm should prevent this team from gaining a bye, but again trades are the equalizer.
5) Bees: The last of the three great rotations combined with the best bullpen, top ranked fielding and strong power make the Bees a playoff team. Lack of 44-7’s, special numbers (power at 44/7 at 55) and a +3 or above catcher should prevent a bye. However, the Lyme Bees are presently wearing the Championship belt. And as Rick Flair said “To be the man you gotta beat the man”. Our service would not be surprised at all to see this team in the top three by the end of the season.
6) Wahoos: Mike is the guy in the shower right behind Kevin and John and across the stream from Brian, Craig and Steve. If the soap causes a slip, this team should be right there to take the slot! The Wahoo’s do have a +3 C, strong OBP, Power, Fielding and Hitting. The only downsides are surprisingly their rotation, size not quality of bullpen, and possibly the fact that they don’t grade out as best of the best in any one category, They are simply a very good team who should consider making a couple of trades to bust through the slot!
7) The Plague: Our annual head scratcher on how to evaluate. We had them as high as 3 for a while but settled in with them at 7 though they are very close to #4. The Plague are loaded with top- ranked fielding, speed and .300 hitters. Their pitching is average or slightly above but they have no power (except pretty much Goldschmidt) and well under the average number of 7’s at 44. The most important factor may be Ed. He has done more with less before. He is not afraid of aggressively moving runners even against strong arms. The new rules should play right into his wheelhouse. We believe he will probably find a way to make the playoffs, but we had to rank him at 7 because The Plague simply did not grade out as well overall as the other teams. Beware though, The Plague’s rotation gets much better in the playoffs. You do not want to play these guys then.
Don’t count these guys out. They definitely have a shot!
At least one of these teams will be in the playoff hunt come October. Write that down today. Which one? Will they make it? We don’t know that and they grade out slightly lower than the above group but all three teams have a shot.
8) Lemonheads: The strongest rotation below the mighty three, good starting lineup power, and strong fielding should keep this team in it until the end. Our biggest concern is that Bob will pull the plug too early again this year. The Lemonheads graded out better than two playoff teams last year but started their fire sale way too early. If they hang in there this year and become a buyer they may be wrestling with Mike in the shower for that coveted slot.
9) Browns: We had them ranked higher until Tony talked us out of it with his concerns over being new. We hold firm that if you are not confident you can win then you probably won’t in the OOTL. This also goes for getting pissed or frustrated. That has been a major downfall of many OOTL contenders over the years though I do not envision that affecting the Browns. Their top ranked speed matches the rule changes and their bullpen is top quality though small. Their starting lineup is also powerful which came to fruition in a recent series. A fast learning curve and a couple trades could put these guys right in the final mix.
10) Eliminators: It is hard to believe that we would ever rank this historic powerhouse 10th but we had to as they grade out lower than the others. However, a powerful starting lineup, top-graded fielding and significant speed will keep them in the mix if like the Lemonheads they do not pull the plug early. Also a lefty-dominated rotation will cause regular season issues with many opponents and playoff nightmares. This team is better than you think. The question is after last year’s monumental effort coming up just short, will the Eliminators make the play this year or sit back and wait for 2017.
Other Notes:
BOY favorites: Mike Trout, Prince Fielder, Buster Posey, Nolan Arenado, Dee Gordon.
POY favorities: Jaime Garcia, Gerrit Cole, Jake Arrieta, Zach Grienke, Clayton Kershaw.
Draft Robberies: Steven Matz at 9th pick 1st, Jaime Garcia at 10th pick 1st. Randall Grichuk at 15th overall.
Well it is now time to say goodbye until our end-of-year report. Good luck to all and don’t give up! If you want to win this year you can. It may cost you assets or next year’s picks but all 10 teams can win this year!!
ASSN
2016 Seasonings

Relief Pitching

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In this report we wind down the category analysis with Relief Pitching. Our group took a similar approach to the one used on Starting Pitching and subjectively broke all pitchers with relief innings into 4 groups based on the 5 factors of pitching. For starters with relief appearances and split grade starters we assigned a reasonable amount of potential innings.
Our ranking is then based on the chart we created. We opted against creating an index as not every team has the same number of innings available. This worked for SP’s because each team would have exactly 90 starts. Total innings was also a final factor for ranking for several teams which had either way above or below the average number of innings.
 Relief-Chart
Best Bullpens:
1) Lyme Bees: earned the top spot with a solid 53 “A” innings and 177 A & B rated innings, which was the highest in those groups of any team.
2) AB’s: close behind the Bees but coming in 2nd with only 128 A&B innings.
3) Browns: definitely one of the best bullpens with the most “A” graded innings of 113. The only reason they are 3 instead of 1 is a lack of innings with only 240 overall. This represents 30 innings below average and not enough for our league unless a team had a strong A+ graded rotation.
4) Shooting Stars: the largest bullpen helped drive the “A” rating but also 107 A&B innings and no D innings helped distinguish this group from the Tsunamis and Speakers,
Solid Bullpens:
5) Tsunamis: a strong bullpen but too heavily dragged down with 55 D innings. 53-22 A innings and 13 additional overall innings gave them the nod over the Speakers
6) Speakers: 144 A&B innings made for a strong bullpen. The Speakers in hindsight were one cheater reliever from having possibly the best bullpen.
The Rest:
7) The Plague: Fell to this group with only 58 A&B innings.
8) Eliminators: Only 37 A&B innings drove this rating.
9) Lemonheads : A strong 95 A&B innings but not nearly enough innings with only 209. A strong rotation may mitigate this some, but we have to wonder what could have been for this team’s bullpen and even overall ranking if they hadn’t used so many roster spots on unusable players.
10) Wahoos: A respectable 75 A&B innings but again put in this group due to not having enough innings. 225 is not enough even in a 90-day season unless you have an A+ rotation.
Never fear though as RP trades can be the great equalizer. We have to assume that this is the planned strategy for the teams short on innings if they remain in the pennant race.
In the next edition we close out the journal with Part 10: The Final Rankings!
ASSN
2016 Seasonings

Flex 6 and Overall Draft Strategies

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Today we will be looking at what we call “Flex 6” and overall draft strategies. As we discussed, there are 6 spots on each OOTL roster which will vary in makeup based on an owner’s strategy. These positions will all strengthen your roster, but with our limited roster size, the downside is that while you get better in one area you are also sacrificing another area.
The key for strategic use of these positions is to improve enough that you are mitigating any glaring team weaknesses. A simple example: If your starter and backup at a position both have poor fielding grades, it is prudent to draft a player that can act as a defensive replacement. But that is only one example of these 6 Flex spots.
We will start by identifying each category below. The two most popular categories accounting for 50% of the 60 Flex positions are players with no value this season. The other four categories collectively make up the other 50% of the 60 positions and are used as a strategy to help out the team this season. Each team’s two Prospect players are not included below:
FlexPlayers-Chart
THE FUTURE STRATEGIES:
1) SP’s Uncarded or Unused for this season: This category represents 25% of the total Flex 6 players. Several teams use a strategy of stashing high upside starting pitchers with low current grades in the minors for use in future seasons. Others stash veteran uncarded or poorly graded pitchers in the minors in hopes that they will bounce back from an injury or bad season next year. In this service’s opinion, it can be a very effective strategy, but should be limited to one position which has no value for this year. If a SP from this group can be used for a couple of emergency starts or as an emergency reliever, then we support this player. If not, we recommend moving on from these players beyond one roster spot. The roster spots are too valuable and to protect more than one player which has no value is too much of a sacrifice in the present season.
2) Position Players Uncarded or Unused for this season: This category represents another 25% of the total Flex 6 players. Basically the same definition as the above but applied to position players. Our recommendation is relaxed a bit with position players because they can be used in a variety of ways and it is a rare situation where a carded position player has no value whatsoever. For those players and uncarded ones, again our recommendation is no more than one total roster spot should be reserved for a player with no value in the present season.
We understand an owner’s dilemma with the above groups. You draft a Top Prospect with huge upside and he has an unusable card after you took away his prospect status. What do you do? Some teams will tend to hold on to these guys regardless for years. Others will cut bait. We gave our opinion and we also have a new idea to solve the dilemma. Our service refers to both groups as Veteran Prospects and we are proposing a rule change for the 2017 season. (See end of this post.)
THIS YEAR STRATEGIES
3) Defense or Speed Specialists:
4) SP game 4 playoff Starters Cheater Cards:
5) Position Player Cheater Cards:
6) RP Cheater cards & Extra Relievers:
Team-by-Team Strategy Look at Flex 6’s: Subjective and in some cases other players could apply along with multiple categories (just listed/not ranked)
Asians: 1 RP Cheater (Hinojosa), 2 PP Cheaters (Gutierrez, Rayburn), 3 Defense/Speed Specialists (Revere/Marte/Ramos)
Sacrifices: SP4, Mid-level starts, Additional top graded reliever, Future prospects
AB’s: 1 PP Uncarded (Profar), 1 SP Veteran Prospect (Cosart), 1 Cheater Starter (Eichoff), 2 Def/Speed specialists (Gardner,Pillar) and 1 Extra Reliever
Sacrifices: Top Grade Starting Pitcher, Power and Hitting Bench options
Browns: 2 PP Veteran Prospects (Wright, Ramirez), 1 SP Veteran Prospect (Paxton), 1 Cheater SP4 starter (Gilmartin), 1 Def/Speed (Segura), 1 Cheater RP (Albers)
Sacrifices: Mid-level starts, 2nd Big hitter to complement Morales, 3rd C with plus arm, 1B4 full-time.
Bees: 4 Cheater RP’s (Capps, Givins, Vizcaino, Verhaven), 2 Veteran PP prospects(Polanco, Zunino)
Sacrifices: SP depth and future prospects, C+ arm, Big Hitter DH/bench
Eliminators: 4 PP Veteran prospects (Spanberg, Bruce, Mauer), 2 SP Veteran Prospect (Pineda, Nelson), 1 Def/Speed (6th OF)
Sacrifices: Mid-level SP, Top level RP’s, 3rd C +throw
Plague: 3 Veteran SP prospects (Alverez, Darvish, Collmenter), 1 SP4 Cheater (Matz), 2 Veteran Prospect PP’s (Santana, Hunter)
Sacrifices: Top relief, 3rd C +arm, Big Hitting Power card
Lemonheads: 3 Veteran SP prospects (Stroman, Wheeler, McHugh), 1 RP prospect (Walden), 2 Def/Speed specialists (Bradley, Pompey)
Sacrifices: RP innings, 3C def/+arm,
Speakers: 2 Cheater SP4 prospects (Severino, Blanton), 1 Cheater PP (Hernandez), 1 SP Veteran Prospect (Bradley), 2 Veteran PP prospects (2 of Rendon/Wang/Odor)
Sacrifices: Top level RP’s, Relief innings, Big Hitting bat.
Wahoo’s: 2 Cheater PP’s (Blanco, Colabello), 1 Veteran Prospect PP (Meseroco), 3 Veteran Prospect SP’s (Wainewright, Cobb, Bauer)
Sacrifices:  RP innings, Mid-level starts, 3C vs. R, Speed
Stars: 2 Cheater SP’s (McCalister, Wilson), 1 Cheater PP (Casali), 2 Def/Speed (Alonzo, 3C), 1 Veteran SP prospect (Descalfani)
Sacrifices: Big Hitter on Bench/DH, Def OF, 1B vs. LHP
Overall OOTL 3 Year Draft Strategy:
Below is a chart showing the top 10, 20 and 50 picks in the past three drafts. Some interesting notes include:
1st 10 Picks: SP’s decreased from 6-5-4. PP’s went from 4-3-6.  RP’s & Prospects 0-1-0 across the three years.
1st 20 Picks: RP’s roller-coastered 3-7-0, SP’s were flat 9-8-8, Prospects decreased 2-1-0, PP’s down then soared this year 6-4-12.
1st 50 Picks: SP’s flat then decrease 17-17-13, RP’s grew 10-14-13, PP’s grew slightly 19-18-21, Prospects fell then rose again 4-1-3.
Draft-Chart
In the next edition we will tackle Relief Pitching! Below is the Rule Change Proposal:
Rule Proposal: Create 2 new Veteran Prospect roster positions thereby expanding the overall roster to 38 players
1) These players are ineligible to play in the upcoming season so they will not increase an owner’s options or in-game moves.
2) Any current roster player who is carded or has been previously can be made a Veteran Prospect for one season.
3) Any drafted player presently carded or previously carded can be made a Veteran Prospect for one season.
4) Once traded or when the season ends these players will lose their Veteran prospect status.
ASSN

Starting Lineup