2016 First Period

Lymebees vs. Shartlesville Browns

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Game 1; Arrieta vs Kershaw; Bees get off to a quick start with 1 out in the first. Travis walks, Hosmer triples in the first run, Braun singles to score Hosmer and Franco follows with a 2-run HR for a 4-run 1st inning. Browns score in the 3rd on a one-out single by Castro followed by a Dyson triple. Bees chase Kershaw in the 7th. After the first two batters strike out, Beltre singles, Pederson doubles and Gonzalez chases in two on a Castro throwing error. Browns get an unearned run in the 7th. Bees get a single run in the 8th as Bees win 7-2.

Game 2; Gray vs Gallardo; Bees get 2 runs in the 2nd, single runs in the 5th and 6th, and 2 runs in the 9th as Gray pitches a complete game 3-hitter. Bees win 6-0.

Game 3; Strasburg vs McCullers; Browns get a solo HR by Perez in the 2nd. Bees come back in the 2nd with a leadoff HR (gift) by Upton and score another run in the inning. Beltre hits a solo HR in the 4th. Bees finish scoring with 4 runs in the 6th. Bees win 7-1.

Game 4; Shields vs Syndergaard; Bees score twice in the 1st. Browns get a leadoff single by Herrera in the 3rd followed by a run-scoring double by Castro, but Syndergaard would get out of the inning and pitch a complete game giving up 4 hits. Bees would score in the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th innings as Bees complete the 4-game sweep with a 10-1 win.

Lymebees record at 8-4.

John Ingiosi

2016 Seasonings

Shartlesville Browns vs. Shooting Stars II

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Game 1) Browns finally get in the W column behind Kershaw who went 7 and allowed 2 runs on 8 hits while striking out 5. Game 1 marked one of the trends of the series: big 1st innings by the victors as the Sharts sent 8 to bat scoring 3 runs on 5 hits including homers by Bruce Hairpin and Kyle Seager. Another trend emerged for the Browns in the 5th as they plated 2 runs with only one hit as Morales walked ahead of a Castellanos 2-run bomb. The Browns cruised to an 8-3 victory.
Game 2) Game 2 pitted deGrom against Gallardo and turned on another 2-run/1-hit inning for the Sharts as deGrom walked Seager leading off the 2nd and surrendered a 2 run shot to Salvy Perez. It stayed locked at 2-0 until the 8th when the Stars got a 2-out rally going. Inciarte singled, took 2nd on an error and was plated by a Carpenter base knock to cut the lead to 2-1. Tony Watson got the last out of the 8th and stayed on to pitch the 9th for his first save after the Browns plated an insurance run in the bottom of the 8th to improve to 2-4 with a 3-1 win.
Game 3) The big first inning was back as the Stars knocked Wacha around. Inciarte doubled to lead things off followed by an Escobar walk to set the stage for Carpenter who reached the seats for a 3-run HR. The Stars weren’t done as Casali singled and reached second on a Billy Burns throwing error. He was plated by Choo to push the Stars advantage to 4-0 before the Sharts ever touched a bat. The Browns looked to chip away when Morales actually hit with RISP and doubled in Zobrist in the 2nd, but that was all they had against Kuechel. He waltzed through the Browns lineup allowing 1 run on 2 hits while walking 2 and K’ing 10 (including 6 in a row in the 6th and 7th) to get the W. Soria and Smith were perfect in the 8th and 9th to close it out. Carpenter also added a solo shot in the 3rd inning to help the Stars to a 5-1 win.
Game 4) This game featured both of the big themes of this series. In the top of the 1st the Browns got a leadoff triple from Dyson and an RBI ground out from Phillips followed by back-to-back doubles from Hairpin and Morales to stake Strasburg to a 3-0 lead before he took the mound and it would prove to be all he needed. Phillips and Seager solo jobs in the 5th and 6th made it 5-0 before Inciarte doubled to lead off the 6th and was driven in by Teixeira to cut the lead to 5-1. Then came the familiar scenario in the 8th as Hairpin walked and Seager smacked a two-run shot for another 2-run/1-hit inning, the third for the Sharts in the series. Seager ended up 4/2/4/3 with 2 HRs and a 2b. Strasburg gave up an unearned run in the 9th but held on for the CG win as the Browns improved to 3-5 behind the 7-2 victory.
Notes: The Browns hit .246 for the series and had their slugging shoes on to the tune of 5 doubles, a triple and 8 homers.
2016 Seasonings

Prospects and Young Men

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Today we are analyzing the OOTL Top Prospect positions and team youth. Below is a chart showing the breakdown of the league’s 20 prospect players by position. This year’s breakdown is dead even with 10 Starting Pitchers and 10 position players. The majority of the Top 15 Baseball America prospects are protected. Only Trea Turner, AJ Reed and Andrew Benintendi remain unsigned.
ProspectsByPosition-Chart
As far as the youth breakdown we chose 1990 as our base year. It seemed like only yesterday when in the 2013 draft Xander Bogaerts became the first Asian Tsunami born in the 90’s. Now 1990 players are 25 and 26 years old. Unfortunately, time is going by too fast and we are all getting old. The following chart looks at the number of players per team born 1990 and later as well as the number of current Top Prospects on each team’s roster. Some teams are fortunate to have 3 current top prospects on their roster but the delta is not significant overall.
However, there is a significant difference in the number of 1990 or later born players by roster. As you can see some teams use a draft strategy focusing on youth while others focus more on veteran or proven players. You can win both ways, but it is evident from the chart that some teams have built a strong base team for the future. Of course not all of this youth will pan out. The Tsunamis waited for years for Philip Hughes and Ian Stewart to be productive before pulling the plug. But certainly the teams loaded with youth today look much better on paper for next year and beyond at this point in time. The Speakers and Lyme Bees are both strongly focused on youth. Very interesting in the Lyme Bees’ case as they were still able to get their first championship last season. Only the Eliminators, Shooting Stars and Asians seem unconcerned about transitioning their rosters. The Eliminators made a legendary effort last season to gain a championship and were severely handicapped in this season’s draft. They are also one of the most loyal teams to their veteran players. The Stars had a recent championship with a solid core and have focused on building a Championship-competitive team annually since that year. Finally the Tsunamis are now in year three of their effort to gain an elusive 5th Championship. They have had several misses on youth due to injuries, traded picks in the effort to get over the top (it failed), and focused their 2016 draft on building a team which could win their 5th championship this season.
ProspectsByTeam-Chart
In the next edition we will elaborate on topics discussed here and address the “Flex 6” roster spots. We believe each team has basically 30 requirements for their roster. This includes 6 SP’s, 6 RP’s, 16 position players and 2 prospects. That leaves 6 players for draft strategy. Each team takes a different approach and, by doing so, they strengthen their teams in certain areas but also give up on opportunities in others.
ASSN
2016 First Period

Lymebees vs. The Plague

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Game 1; Gibson vs Arrieta; Bees get their first two batters on and score on a double play by Lind. The Plague get runners in first and second innings on errors but nothing else off Arrieta until the 5th when Arrieta gives up a one-out HB followed by FC. Then Lemahieu gets a double with Kiermaier running to tie the game. Span gets a run-scoring single, Kipnis single and Goldschmidt hits a 3-run HR for a 5-1 Plague lead. Each team would add one run in the 9th as The Plague win 6-2.
Game 2; Kazmir vs Bumgarner; Bees would get a 2-run HR by Pederson in the 2nd inning followed with a 5-run 3rd with Pederson hitting another 2-run HR. The Plague get 3 runs in the 4th. Bees come back in the 5th with a Beltre 2-run HR. The Plague get solo HR’s by Hunter in 5th and Lawrie in 9th and Bees win 10-5.
Game 3; McCullers vs Estrada; The Plague score in the 3rd on a 2-out triple by LeMahieu. The Bees would tie the game up in the top of the 9th on a walk to Lind. Braun pinch runs and steals second, Cano hits a single to tie the game. Bees bring in Kela to start the 11th inning, and in the bottom of the 19th, he gives up a leadoff single to Cain, who steals second, Goldschmidt single and Brantley makes contact to end the game in a 2-1 The Plague win.
Game 4; Syndergaard vs Garcia; The Plague get a 2-run HR by Cain in the 1st. Bees get 1 run in the 2nd and plate 2 runs in the 7th. Bottom of the 7th, Givens comes in and gives up a game-tying double to Kipnis, game winning single by Cain, with a Goldschmidt 2-run HR to end it as The Plague win 6-3.
Lymebees record at 4-4 and are scheduled to play the Browns this Thursday night.
John Ingiosi
2016 Seasonings, Personal

Hitting

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Today our service will be evaluating hitting. It is the 4th offensive category we have examined that all factor into scoring runs. Our service believes that hitting in the OOTL has evolved to the point where it may be the most important of the 4 scoring factors. If you look at last season, the two teams which dominated the entire season and met in the Championship were also the two best hitting teams. The third best hitting team, The Plague, also made the playoffs. In the past it seemed like OBP, Power and Speed played a greater focus. The Tsunamis won 4 Championships but only 3 of them with good hitting teams. Our service is not sure that in the new OOTL this could be done again as easily. Last season’s best Power and pitching team, the Wahoos, missed the playoffs due to struggles with hitting. We still do think that an average hitting team with great power, OBP and speed has a shot at glory, but it is much harder today than it was in the past. Some reasons include improved bullpens, the draft strategy evolution of cheater starters and relievers and the rules now limiting SB attempts.

Again, with this analysis we chose to take an easier directional approach rather than evaluating every number on every card in each team’s lineups projected vs. lefties and righties. We decided to look at four factors: three of them objective and a subjective analysis only coming into play in one area. The areas being evaluated are as follows:

1) MLB Average +.300: We believe this area will capture the players most likely to have the extra 11’s, 10’s, E opportunities and RP’s. These players on average will have less K’s; and therefore, runners will be moved more easily.
2) 7 or better at 44: With our all-star staffs and bullpens, the 7 or better at 44 is a huge advantage over an 8. It shakes out the players who may be better in MLB than the OOTL because they were bogged with 10’s instead of the 7.
3) 7 or better at 55: This is another bonus that usually is reserved to good hitters who do not steal. In the OOTL the 7 at 55 is a goldmine.
4) Pluses vs. L and R: This is the subjective analysis, but is an equalizer for players with significant 8’s. A team with strong pluses can make up for deficiencies in the above three ratings.

Below is a chart based on our findings. The pluses category grade is either a plus, even or a minus representing each team’s collective value and number of plus players. On another note, an interesting finding was that there are no teams this year which grade out terrible vs lefties. As we discussed in another report, there are usually 1-2 teams which will struggle greatly vs. lefties. There are certainly teams where it makes sense to pitch or not pitch a LHSP against this year, but all teams will have a good opportunity to compete.

Hitting-Chart

BEST HITTING TEAMS:

1) Asian Tsunamis: Once again the Tsunamis are at the top of an offensive category. This team is loaded with Power, BB and hitting. Our service believes they are positioned to break the OOTL runs scored record this season. The question is whether it will be enough to offset their opportunity areas. Their only hitting limitation is a lack of strong pluses and number of pluses vs. both RHP and LHP.

2) The Plague: The strongest in the league with the most .300 hitters are loaded with 11’s. However, a below average number of 7’s at 44 will cause trouble against top-rated pitching. The Plague will still be a strong hitting team and–combined with their speed and OBP ratings–will still score runs. The question mark will be whether that will be enough to overcome the lack of power and 7’s at 44.

THE NEXT BEST:

3) AB’s: With three .300 hitters and eight 7+’s at 44 this team looks strong offensively. Added to that is a large number of plus players with several large vs. splits. Combining this with strong OBP and speed grades should make for some interesting shootouts. Good enough for an “A” rating in most years but are in the “B” group to differentiate from the Asians and The Plague, which simply have more weapons.

4) Wahoo’s: A huge improvement over last year’s team in hitting. With 3 players having 7+ at 55 the Wahoo’s should be strong enough to score many more runs this year.

AVERAGE:

5) Speakers: The Speakers head up this group and therefore the overall race has gotten much tighter. The 2 players with 7+ at 55 and a crew of strong pluses will make an impact, but with only 5 players having 7+ at 44 this team will go through some run scoring droughts. However, the Speakers strong speed and Power ratings along with the 7’s at 55 should allow this team to still compete for one of the top spots. Their overall lead though has narrowed significantly from this category.

6) Shooting Stars: Right there with the Speakers but slightly below the next best group. A strong plus rating and additional 7 at 44 will be complimented by the Stars strong OBP rating.

7) Lemonheads: Docked a couple of spots due to limited pluses of regular players but basically tied with the two teams above from a hitting perspective. Lower BB and Power ratings will means less runs for this team overall.

8) Lyme Bees: Very close to the above three teams but no 7’s at 55 this year will hurt run production. A huge step down this year for this team over last year.

THE REST:

9) Browns: Again no 7’s at 55 hurt but a strong plus contingent will help push in runs. Overall limitation of 5 players with 7+ at 44 will cause some droughts. Moving runners will be key to the Browns success.

10) Eliminators: Another big drop off from last year. Only one .300 hitter and 5 players with 7 at 44 and none at 55 will make for many low scoring efforts. Again moving runners will have to be the equalizer for this group.

One thing we should stress is that there are many ways to win in the OOTL and many ways to engineer runs. No team is grading out overall where they have no chance to make the playoffs. Each team has different strengths and different opportunity areas. Trades can also change things dramatically overnight. The race for the top three seeds has now tightened up considerably. All other teams still have a shot at the 4-5 seeds. The Bullpen category remains as the main factor left to impact the overall ratings. In the next edition we will make a left turn and look at youth and top prospects. In this service’s opinion, it takes a minimum of two years to build a championship contender; therefore, this will be an important analysis for the future as well as for the top teams as this group will also be trade resources!

ASSN

Starting Lineup