2016 First Period

Shooting Stars II vs. Lymebees

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Game 1; Arrieta vs Fiers; Bees manage a first inning run with two outs and runners on first and second when Cano hits a single. Bees get a leadoff single by Hosmer in the third followed by a 2-run HR by Lind. Stars would get their only run in the third with two out. Escobar singles and Carpenter hits a double with Escobar running to score. Arrieta would pitch into the 8th and with two outs Bees bring in Givens to finish the game. Stars would get a two-out double in ninth but Givens would strike out final two batters of game as Bees win 3-1.
Game 2; Bumgarner vs deGrom; Bees score two runs in the first with one coming in on a WP; another in the 3rd, 3 more in the 5th and a solo HR by Tulowitzki in the 8th. Bumgarner would pitch a complete game shutout giving up just 2 hits as Bees win 7-0.
Game 3; Keuchel vs Gray; Bees would score in the second inning on a leadoff single by Braun and SB. With one out Beltre would single him in. Stars come back in the 5th with Peralta hitting a one-out single. Escobar, up with two outs, would get HBP followed by a Carpenter 2-run triple for Stars 2 runs. Keuchel would get pulled in the bottom of the 5th. After the first two batters get out, Norris singles and Yelich walks. Lowe would come in to get the third out and the Stars pen shuts down the Bees. Stars win 2-1.
Game 4: Lackey vs Hendricks; Bees would win this with a one-out solo HR by Yelich in the 7th inning being the only scoring. Lackey would get pulled in the bottom of the 5th after giving up a leadoff single. The Stars bullpen does a good job except for a solo HR. Hendricks would get pulled after going 5 inning and giving up 5 hits, most notably in the 3rd inning Peralta would lead off with a single and Inciarte follows with a double to put runners on 2nd and 3rd base. But Alonso hits into a line drive double play and Hendricks would get out of the inning. Lymebees shut down the Stars in the final 4 innings and Bees win 1-0.
Bees pitching is the story of the series as starters give up 3 runs and relievers don’t give anything.
2016 Seasonings

Fielding

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In this report our team will tackle Fielding.  Our analysis will be both objective based on the hard numbers of each team’s defensive ratings by position but also subjective as we had to make projections on likely lineups. Also our team values some factors greater than others from a fielding perspective and these positions often effected our overall team ratings. On the positive side: 9 SS, +3 and above Catcher arms and +33 and above outfielder arms. On the negative: Pct of starts/innings for pitchers graded 1, 3B 3’s, and 1B 2-3. One interesting note is that in this services opinion, there are no poor fielding teams. Due to our all-star level teams, while some teams have a position or two which will cause frustration, there is no team which should be fielding 3 and putting a bad fielding team in play. In fact with the exception of 3 outliers, the majority of teams are very close in their team fielding ratings.
Best of the Best:
1) Speakers: Once again the Speakers earn a high rating in a category. 5 ratings at 1st and 3rd, 10 at SS, 1-2 starting OF3’s, and a C9 with +3 arm will compliment the Speakers highly ranked rotation and make runs challenging for their opponents. The only real watch out may be the OF2’s and number of innings and starts by P1’s.
Above Average:
2) The Plague: We give the nod to The Plague but the next 7 teams are very closely ranked.  5 ratings at 1st and 3rd, SS9, 3 OF3’s, and mostly P2’s put them up there right below the Speakers. The only concerns are the C7 -3 throwing catcher which will start most of their games and a predominance of P1 relief innings.
3) Lyme Bees:  5 ratings at 1st and 3rd, SS9, 3 OF3’s, OF +arms and mostly RP2’s for the good.. The only concerns are: 2B7,  P1 relief innings and C7 or C8 -2 arm games.
4) Eliminators: 3B5, 2B9, 3 OF3’s and mostly SP2’s for the good. The only concerns are: SS8, P1 starting games and no positive C arms.
5) AB’s: 1B5, SS9, 2-3 OF3’s, and OF +arms for the good. Concerns are: Likely 3B3 and some SS8 starts, C7 -2 games, and significant P1 starts and relief innings.
6) Lemonheads: 1B5, 3B5, SS9, and P2 for most starts and relief are the positives. Likely significant 2B7 and OF2 starts, C7 starts, and no strong C throwing arm are the concerns.
7) Wahoo’s: SS9, 3B5, C8 with good arm, and P2 starters are the strengths. Likely 1B3 starts, OF arms and significant P1 relief innings are only concerns.
8) Asian Tsunamis: 2B9, P2 majority of starts and relief innings and C option with +3 arm are the strengths. The concerns are SS8, OF2’s and likely C negative throwing arm starts.
Average:
9) Shartlesville. Browns: 3B5, and C9 are strengths. Challenges will include: 1B2 and SS7 starts, P1 starts/relief innings, OF2’s, and no strong catching arm.
10) Shooting Stars II: Solid but not great ratings at all positions are the strengths. Concerns are: C7 or C8 -3 games, SS8, P1 starts and relief innings, OF2 or OF1 games and limited + throwing C games.
So we are now half way through our 10-part pre-season series. At this point an aggregate analysis has 9 teams very close to each other in the battle for the 2nd and 3rd place rankings. In the OOTL it is critical to earn a top 3 seed to get a bye in the Playoffs first round. One team, the Speakers, is clearly ahead of the others in the rankings at this point. However, Bullpens and Hitting are two major categories which remain. Can the Speakers do well enough in those areas to hold on to a top three spot? That question will be answered in future edition. Next up is Hitting!!!
ASSN
2016 First Period

Arrogant Bastards vs. Eliminators

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“Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand.”
― Leo Durocher

Game 1
Hamels squares off against Volquez…neither would factor in the decision.  The AB’s muster 2 solo HR’s (still trending…) from AGone while Cutch drives in Pollock and Correa drives in Cutch 2 innings later.  This one would go….wait for it….EXTRA INNINGS!!!!  Back-to-back doubles in the bottom of the 12th by Adam Jones and Ethier give the Eliminators a 3-2 walk-off victory.  Wilson picks up the win while Brach suffers the loss.  The Elim’s leave 13 on as they just set the tone for the start of a crazy series. The AB’s only muster 5 hits but extend the Solo HR streak to 9.

Game 2
Scherzer faces Ventura…hold on tight boys; this one is gonna be a bumpy ride.  Trout grounds to 2nd to start the game and the AB’s then go BB, BB, BB, single, BB, single, runner picked off 1st w/ bases loaded, single, single, and Trout ends the 5 run 1st w/ a grounder back to the box.  I mean you see that kind of inning every game, right?  In the top of the 2nd Parra leads off and reaches on a Correa error, AGone doubles, Stanton BB’s and then Ortiz hits into an RP (well it is the most bizarre play in my brain) DP on a grounder to 3rd – Donaldson steps on 3rd and throws to first and the AB’s get a 6th run to push the lead to 6-0.  Stop and think about that DP for a second…ok, moving on.  A Correa 2-run 3rd inning HR caps a 3-run inning for the Elims to trim the lead to 6-3.  In the 4th the Elims go single, single, single, single, fly out, 3-run HR to take an 8-6 lead.  Stays that way until the top of the ? when with 2 outs Parra hits…wait for it…the AB’s 10th solo HR to start the season to cut the lead to 8-7.  Still with 2 outs AGone BB’s as Giancarlo Stanton steps up and says…enough is a enough…and he belts a 2 run HR (NON SOLO…TIME TO PARTY IN THE STREETS…WHERE IS NEAL COTTS?) to put the AB’s up 9-8.  But in the bottom of the 8th, a 2-out double by Donaldson rips Wade Davis’ heart right from his chest as Cutch walks home to tie it at 9-9.  Guess what?…we go EXTRA INNINGS!!!!   Forsythe leads off the 10th w/ a single and steals 2nd on a failed H&R attempt. Andrus SAC’s him to 3rd and Mike Trout delivers with a single (HIS ONLY HIT OF THE SERIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!).  2 batters later Trout would score on an AGone RBI double.  In the bottom of the 10th the Elims go single, BB, BB to load the bases with no one out.  Donaldson hits a SAC fly plating Pollock and with 2 outs and runners on 2nd and 3rd Heyward rolls an error number to the SS…now Addison Russell had to the enter the game to play 2nd base due to some other moves earlier, so Elvis Andrus was at SS as an 8.  Elvis fielded one and threw out Heyward to save the game. (It was the 2nd time in the game that Elvis fielded one on an error play).  GEE WHIZ…the AB’s win in 10, E-O-LEVEN to TEN.  Winner is Jansen with a save for Dyson as Gott gets the loss.

Game 3
As if the first 3-plus hours of action weren’t enough the scene shifted to the AB’s turf as Miller took on Lester.  The AB’s took a 1-0 lead in the 2nd on a 2-out RBI single by Elvis Andrus.  Shelby Miller retired the first 10 batters he faced; and then, he went to church (see the quote…again).  The next 8 Elims go double, BB, fly out (YEAH WE GOT 2 OUTS!!!!), double, single, BB, BB, double clears the bases, double scores the guy that cleared them, and a fly out to end the inning!!!  TOUCHDOWN Eliminators!!!!!  7-1 Eliminators.  Jones drives in 2, Ethier 1, Castillo 3 and Pollock 1.  In the bottom of the 4th, Forsythe gets a 2-out double to plate Gardner and then Stanton comes up to jack a 3-run HR to cut the lead to 7-5.  Both starting pitchers are downgraded. . .just like in GAME 2.  In the 6th, Stanton drives in another run with a 2-out single to make it 7-6; and in the 7th Russell Martin hits a solo HR to TIE it up AGAIN in the series 7-7.  GUESS WHAT?  WE GO EXTRA INNINGS!!!!!  Quick note – Shelby Miller actually settled in to go a much needed 8 innings for the AB’s as EVERY relief pitcher for the AB’s was on the clock…FOR THE 2ND STRAIGHT GAME!
Adam Jones led off the 11th with a solo HR, Martin dropped a foul pop (in 11 games he caught a 14, 12, and now an 11 inning game); and with 2 outs Forsythe made an error, Heyward pinch ran, stole and scored on yet another 2 out hit by Castillo…nothing mustered from the AB’s in the bottom of the 11th and the Elims hold on for a 9-7 win.  O’Day gets the W while Jansen takes the L.

Game 4
As Speakers manager Brian ‘BDUB’ Williams looked on – in attendance for a beer and some advanced scouting – two former Speakers squared off in game 4 as Salazar and Felix ‘The King’ Hernandez feared taking the bump.  Fear? Who wants to pitch on this night?  Parra leads off (Trout dropped from that spot) with a double and, after a fly out, AGone coaxes a 1-out BB. Up steps Mike Trout who–even though he is scuffling–legs out a fielders choice to keep the inning alive.  Up steps Big Papi who deposits The King’s next pitch into Clyde’s poop-filled yard (Bill has moved out…management needs to poop scoop) for a 3-0 AB’s lead.  The AB’s would tack on 3 more in the 3rd on 3 BB’s, a SAC fly RBI by Ortiz and 2-out 2-run double by Swihart.  AGone would plate Addy Russell in the 4th for a 7-0 lead.  The Elims would not go quietly as Freddie Freeman jacks a 2-run shot in the 5th and Pollock double home 2 runs in the 7th to cut the lead to 7-4.  Kevin Pillar would hit a 2-out solo HR in the 8th to give the AB’s an 8-4 cushion and a series split.  Salazar picks up the win as The King suffers the loss.

Series Notes – series took nearly 5.5 hours to play.
AB’s went 11 for 34 w/ RISP hitting .324 while the Elims went 14 for 50 (YES FIFTY) for a .280 clip.
AB’s hit .229 overall in the series but out-homered the Elims 8-5.
AB’s used 16.2 innings of RP as the Elims used 15.2.
Elims out-hit the AB’s 44-35…but it was a roll fest…I’m still spent the next evening.

AB Quick Notes
7-5 after 3 very different series.
35 innings of bullpen used mostly due to 6 of the 12 games going extra frames (about 12% of overall BP used as 13% of the season is completed).
AB’s played 8 consecutive 1 run games from games 3-10 going 5-3 in those contests.
Mike Trout is hitting .104 but is tied with Parra for most runs scored at 8.
Quite possibly the strangest start to one of my seasons since I’ve seen in this league.

2016 Seasonings

Power and OBP

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Two of the most critical factors of success in the OOTL are Power and OBP. Since the OOTL is an all-star pitching league and dice are used, a team’s hitting ability is only one of 4 factors of offensive success. In a previous edition we looked at speed/moving runner. In a future edition hitting will be evaluated, but today the ASSN will evaluate each teams Power and OBP.
Power:
As opposed to pitching it it difficult to evaluate power due to limitation of games and double-column cards with zeros in the first column. Obviously a double-column card loaded with 1’s in column two is stronger than one with limited second column 1’s, but the challenge of evaluating these differences becomes information prohibitive.  Therefore we chose to take a more simple approach with power as we believe our factors will give a clear enough evaluation without going into too much detail.
Key Factors Evaluated:
1) 1st Column 1’s at 66
2) Power numbers at 44
3) Other 1st Column 1’s and 5’s. (1’s are given 1 point and, since 5’s are not always HR’s, they count as .5 points)
As you can see from the chart below the Asian Tsunamis executed their draft strategy and built what we believe is a team that can take a run at the all-time home run record. APBA is much more fun to Tsunami leadership when they score runs so they made the sacrifices necessary to build a team that should score regardless of bad rolling days. Will it be enough to reach the end goal of a 5th championship? That remains to be seen. We will give our team evaluations in part 10 of this report, but as for power the Tsunamis are in a league of their own.
The Speakers, Wahoos and Lyme Bees are also loaded with power and will be a force with the long ball. Flat or negative power pitchers may end up with brown pants when going up against this group.  The Stars fell down to the average group because they were on the borderline and three first column ones are all on the same card of a limited use player. However they are still a power force.
Finally in a league of their own as well is The Plague. As we saw from the Speed/Moving Runners analysis, The Plague’s GM focus is on speed and they will have to take that route to get to the top.  A scary team at this point is the Speakers as they are second ranked in power, were one of the top teams in speed/moving runners and had one of the best rotations. It definitely looks like–at least early on–they will be under consideration for the top three playoff seeds.
Power-Chart
OBP:
The second element we are discussing today is OBP. Again we are taking a lazier route in analysis rather than counting all BB’s, Rare play/Error opportunities and HBP ‘s on each card. However, we believe our MLB-actual OBP analysis will give us a strong directional ranking of teams without all the extra work.
Key Factors Evaluated:
1) Players with MLB OBP +.345
2) Players with MLB OBP +.375
Once again, the numbers indicate the Tsunamis at the top. This will be a strong combination of power and OBP so the Tsunamis could be positioned for success pending other evaluation factors to come. The Stars, Plague, Wahoos and AB’s are also above average on the OBP front. The Wahoos OBP/Power factors are also a great combination while the high speed graded Plague along with this OBP ranking could help position them high up in the standings. And what about the Stars Rotation, Power and OBP? Another team to look at strongly. Flat or negative control pitchers also may need some Shout stain remover when they face this group.
An interesting note is our champions are leading up the rear in this category. Very surprising but low OBP can often be balanced out by strong hitting cards. That answer will come in a later journal edition.
OBP-Chart
As you can see as we start combining these various factors, things start to take shape on the overall team rankings. However, we have several more evaluations to come including the final 6 spots, bullpens, hitting, and in the next edition, fielding!

Asian Sports Network (ASSN)
2016 Seasonings

Cheater Cards, Speed and Moving Runners

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Cheater Cards:
Marcus Stroman was not carded this year but was a huge factor in the MLB playoffs. Had he had a couple more regular season starts would he have been called a cheater card? Chris Colabello started all of Toronto’s post season games, batted .286 in the playoffs and was a key factor yet many would call him a cheater card. Steven Matz is a top prospect on everyone’s list, started in the playoffs and World Series, but his Grade 20/3 start card would be considered a cheater card by most. Three seasons ago Michael Wacha and Xander Bogaerts were huge assets to their MLB teams in the playoffs and World Series yet in our league the next year many would have considered them cheater cards.
This is an inflammatory topic and debate with varying opinions in OOTL as well as outside the APBA community. The first issue is really what is a cheater card. That definition varies among APBA players. While most consider XB/J4 cards to be cheater cards if the card is valuable, others take that definition much further and include any veteran player J3 who has a card better than average and much better than their historical card. But is that player a cheater card?   Are high plus throwing catchers who are not starters all cheater card? Are all reliever pitchers with limited innings but strong grades cheater cards? Are top prospect starters with high grades and low starts cheater cards? Are John McDonald types a cheater card? As you can see the debate is a flawed one on both sides because the definition of a cheater card will vary by APBA player.
There is one proven fact regardless of the cheater card: whether a high-graded pitcher or a plus 17 vs. LHP, that player did perform at that level in MLB the previous season. He was a “cheater player” for his MLB team. On the other side of the debate a key additional fact is that those players did not necessarily perform at that level against all opponents or all pitchers though that is also true of every card. Most guys in MLB with +12+ vs. LHP did not hit as well vs. Kershaw as they did vs. Gio Gonzalez. So both sides have valid arguments for and against cheater cards. Our only opinion is you cannot vary the definition of a cheater card by the name of the player.  You cannot say a veteran over performing is one but a top prospect with the same type of card is not a cheater card.
The ASSN believes that cheater cards are not a problem in the OOTL because of our strict usage requirements and our limited availability (barring trades) of 34 active players per season. As you are aware, an MLB team averages 45+ players in a season and many crossover the 50-60+ barrier. These players for the most part have no usage limits and an MLB team’s resources are endless. Since we have 34 spots (barring trades), any cheater cards added will mean the GM is sacrificing another area of the team. We will examine this in more detail in a future edition examining the Final Six rosters spots.
In the 2016 draft, our service identified 18 potential cheater cards drafted.
• Two teams, the Lemonheads and Eliminators did not draft any cheater cards.
• The Lyme Bees lead the way and filled out their bullpen with 4 RP cheater cards.
• The Tsunamis added three including 1 RP Hinojosa and two late position players Gutierrez and Rayburn to protect themselves against lefty starting pitchers. The Speakers surprising drafted three cheater cards but all three of them come with the asterisk. Severino is a top prospect though his value as a 4th game starter in the playoffs is undeniable. Hernandez also has to be considered a cheater card since it is one of the most valuable cards in the entire deck and Hernandez himself does not provide as much value in MLB. The asterisk has to be placed on Hernandez as he is a young player with upside who was a huge part of the 2015 Dodgers and started in the playoffs. Also being asterisked would be Joe Blanton. While the Speakers do not need his starts for the playoffs and his 13 grade relief appearances are not cheater-like, his two starts with a grade 13 RHSP/+42 control rating are definitely cheater starts. The Stars drafted 3 cheaters as well with two G4 playoff starters (again they are not cheaters as relievers but their playoff starts are cheaters) and Casali.
• The Wahoos chimed in with two: Colabello (an asterisk we discussed above) and Blanco.
• Three teams came in with one cheater starter all being game 4 playoff assets.
Speed and Moving Runners:
In the chart below we analyze two functions of moving base runners: fast runners and 31’s. As you see three teams, the Browns, Plague and Speakers have well above average small ball teams. On the other hand, the Bees, Lemonheads, Wahoos, Asians and Stars will need to beat you with power or above average hitting to get to the next level.
Speed-SB-Chart
In the next edition we will look at Power and OBP!!
Asian Sports Network (ASSN)

Starting Lineup